Economy

US inflation expectations hit a five-month high in September

08.10.2025

US inflation expectations hit a five-month high in September

US inflation expectations for the coming year rose to 3.4% in September from 3.2% in August. This is evidenced by the results of the survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This is the highest indicator of the last five months. Food inflation is expected at 5.8%, up from 5.5% last month, which is the highest since March 2023. Consumers predict that gasoline prices will increase by 4.2% in the coming year, instead of 3.9% in August. Expectations of housing price growth remained at 3% for the fourth month in a row. Inflation expectations for the next three years remained at 3% last month, and for five years they increased to 3% from the previous 2.9%. According to the survey, the estimate of the likelihood of unemployment rising in the coming year rose by 2 percentage points to 41.1%, while the forecast for GDP growth fell by 0.1 percentage point to 2.4%, the lowest level since April 2021.